Archive for October, 2008

Budgeting for Risk

Abstract:

Standard risk metrics overlook or average away the impact of extreme events. To evelop and maintain viable investment strategies, Olsen expands the concept or risk-budgeting to allow for drawdowns and to forestall the suddenly fatal effects of margin requirements. This article promotes the combined application of the Calmar Ratio and a new metric devised by Olsen: ExposureFactor (the cost—in terms of leveraged risk capital—required to earn an average annualized return of 1%). The focus here is on strategic engineering of leverage to reduce risk and realize excess return. Included are critiques of some current risk metrics and an explanation of Olsen’s proprietary risk-reducing investment methodology…

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October 30th, 2008 | Investment, News | | 1 Comment »

An extensive set of scaling laws and the FX coastline

Abstract:

We have discovered 17 new empirical scaling laws in foreign exchange data-series that hold for close to three orders of magnitude and across 13 currency exchange rates. Our statistical analysis crucially depends on an event-based approach that measures the relationship between different types of events. The scaling laws give an accurate estimation of the length of the price-curve coastline, which turns out to be surprisingly long. The new laws substantially extend the catalogue of stylised facts and sharply constrain the space of possible theoretical explanations of the market mechanisms…

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October 28th, 2008 | High frequency finance, News | | No Comments »

Interest Rates and Currency-Price Volatility

The interest rates associated with individual currencies are one of the most obvious yet least-understood forces in the foreign exchange marketplace. Their most negative effects capture public attention during carry-trade bubbles, such as the recent (summer 2007) rise — and then abrupt fall — of the New Zealand dollar versus the Japanese yen. But day-to-day, currency traders are misled by a broken market mechanism that encourages pricing to skew away from any connection with reality. In the following interview, Richard Olsen, co-foun der of OANDA, discusses this little-understood issue. The solution he recommends – and has put into practice at Olsen Ltd. and OANDA, the prominent online forex brokerage he founded in 1995 — is continuous interest-rate payment, second-by-second, on all open positions. Continuous interest makes the yield component of every currency transaction real. In a marketplace where fundamentals are few and far between, an d where pricing tends to lack any fundamental frame of reference, continuous interest will help stabilize markets and enable incremental intervention to avoid valuation free-falls…

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October 24th, 2008 | Economics, News | | 1 Comment »