Olsen proposes the introduction of electronic certificates, global early warning system or stabilizing investment strategies, among other innovations. He also gives us his forecast on the market volume and turnover, diversity of market players, investment products, ethic changes or technology and internet evolutions. “Long-term, there will be one centralized exchange – it will be embedded and integral part of the Internet” he foreshadows.

BIS survey reports that spot volume is 1.5 trillion per day in Forex. Are currency markets really as liquid as BIS surveys imply?

Richard Olsen: No, they are not. To the contrary. The actual spot volume of 1.5 trillion per day translates into a small transaction volume of only 17 Mio USD per second. On average there is only 8.5 Mio USD buying and 8.5 Mio selling volume. If an order of 100 Mio USD is triggered, then this order will dominate the market for 10seconds and more. So relatively small market orders of 100 Mio USD or even less can trigger powerful price moves, which can bring about margin calls that amplify the imbalance of buyers and sellers pushing the price even further.

Will transactions turnover increase or decrease in the future?

RO: In the very long-term volumes in the foreign exchange markets will increase massively with the success of quantitative trading strategies that gain wider acceptance. Short-term, I expect volumes to decline, because of the increased uncertainty due to the economic crisis.

In this economic crisis context, some central banks decide to inject money in the market. What effect do these interventions have on the functioning of markets?

RO: The recent interventions of the SNB and BOJ stabilize markets in the short-term, but increase volatility in the long-term. The interventions of the central banks skew the perceptions of market participants. Market participants rely on central banks to continue to intervene; this skews the balance of buyers and sellers. As SNB and BOJ continue to intervene, more and more traders go short, CHF and JPY. When ultimately the price level breaks, the selling volume of margin calls is far larger than would have been the case otherwise increasing the size of the adverse price movement.

Will the market maker’s model be modified in the future?

RO: In recent years, we have observed that the Internet is rapidly mutating from a pure information network into a global market place. I expect that this development will accelerate and that the Internet itself will turn into one large exchange.

My long-term expectation is that traders will trade electronic certificates, a virtual representation of the underlying financial asset, directly on the Internet exchange. We are not yet there, but this is the major development that will take place.
In one respect the Internet exchange will function differently to other organized exchanges: the ranking of bid/ask limit orders will be done on the basis of the size of the respective spread, not the best bid or ask. This change is important, because the direct access with a ranking system based on best bid/ask gives rise to a price instability, which high frequency traders take advantage of.

Do you expect diversity in the types of market players (besides liquidity players, commercial and speculators) to increase in the future?

RO: Yes. In the recent past, we have observed a rapid increase of the number of retail traders; only 10 years ago, this group was quasi non-existent. Today, retail trader account for up to 10 percent of global volume. Corporations do hardly any foreign exchange trading, only the absolute minimum, this will change, when they become aware of the true cost of their passive strategy and the benefits of dynamic hedging. Going forward there will be a lot of growth in volume and diversity of market participants.

What kind of trading strategy should be developed based on this scenario of volume and market participants increase?

RO: Our trading algorithms take advantage of the diversity of trader profiles: our models measure the degree of imbalance between the different groups and identify trading opportunities, when the groups get out of line with each other and there is a large disequilibrium. We take advantage of the disequilibrium to take counter-trend positions i.e. we push back when markets overreact. In doing so, we contribute to market stability. We take advantage of the ongoing up and down move of the market to gradually improve the price average of our positions and then close out the position, when we have reached our profit objective.

What is your assessment of today’s financial system structure?

RO: My assessment might sound too negative; the global financial system has gone beyond the point of no return. The sovereign debt crisis, which has inflicted Iceland, Ireland, Greece and Italy will spread to other countries, not just at the outer frontiers of globalization. The crisis cannot be averted. Refinancing rates will go through the roof, Central banks are highly leveraged and do not have the necessary firing power to avert the real crisis, when the global economy starts to slow in earnest and investors panic. There will be a meltdown.
The global economic system is dysfunctional because of the mismatch between the modern technology used in the real economy and the operational procedures of the financial system, where there is no ongoing settlement and the whole system is batch based. The financial system needs to be reformed, which is not as difficult as people might think.

Your view of the current system is negative, but there is still hope then…

RO: There is not just one thing that needs to be done to make the world safer and more robust. Reforms at several different levels are necessary. If we go for partial solutions, then things can even get worse.

What reforms would make financial structure works better and more safely?

RO: We need to embrace new ideas. We have to streamline the back office operations and move to instantaneous settlement with second by second interest rate payments. In a financial system, where 80% of the trades have a duration of less than 20 minutes, second by second interest rate payments are more than a technical detail.
For instantaneous settlement to happen, we need to introduce electronic certificates, which make any asset easily transferable. The electronic certificates will be issued by the equivalent of notaries for property of land.

We also need to launch a global early warning system, which is organized along the same lines as Wikipedia. It will collect digital data of the real economy and financial markets from sources from around the world to generate online forecast and risk information. I envisage system like a huge economic weather forecasting service covering all aspects of our economy.

In the world economy, should investment strategies be changed? In which way?

RO: We have to stabilize investment strategies: few people are aware that the buy and hold strategies that are recommended for all types of investors and the trend following strategies destabilize the financial system. The global economy is a complex system, which can only achieve stability, if financial assets are managed by market stabilizing investment strategies. Central banks and sovereign wealth funds should use their collateral to trade counter-trend investment strategies and counter-act market excesses. I am not saying that central banks should target particular price levels, they should target a particular volatility regime and take positions, whenever volatility increases and prices overshoot.

Any reform regarding the investment products for the retail traders?

RO: There is a need to develop user friendly investment products. I very much believe in creating the equivalent of an iPhone for investment products – the products need to be designed in such a way that they are intuitive and user friendly; embedded in the financial products should be all the heavy lifting of intra-day decision taking and should be designed in such a way that they contribute to market stability.

Will analysts and traders be dependent on sophisticated technology to achieve absolute returns, or will basic tenets of technical analysis be preserved?

RO: Practitioners developed technical analysis because the economists were not able to provide them the appropriate tools. This is changing. Finance has made a lot of progress and is gradually making available to the everyday man useful decision support tools that significantly improve the performance of retail traders.

Many citizens are criticizing the lack of ethic of the traders and financial markets… Do you agree?

RO: The insiders of financial markets know the inner working of the financial system and can use this knowledge for their own personal benefit, but at the expense of the society at large.

Insider manipulation is prejudicial and illegal. Do you think financial markets actors should be given a stronger sense of responsibility?

RO: In medicine doctors have to swear the Hippocratic oath and are not allowed to abuse their power, we have to create awareness that all aspects of business have an ethical component, where we need to do the right thing: we are not allowed to embark on an action if it only benefits ourselves at the expense of the group at large or the whole society. We are only allowed to take actions that are also beneficial for society as a whole.

To conclude, Richard: are you bearish or bullish as for the future of the markets?

RO: I could not be more bearish for the next two years. There are, however, solutions and we can turn things around. We need to have the courage for change.

(Source: fxstreet.com)

Richard Olsen: I don’t think so. However, the current distortions in the market show that the economic mechanisms behind the foreign exchange markets are not understood well enough. In particular, the fact that the economy is not static, but in a constant state of change, is ignored. The situation is comparable to classical physics before 1900: only Einstein’s theory of relativity, which took the dynamical behaviour into account, allowed for a breakthrough.

So economics needs a new Albert Einstein?

RO: It needs new ideas. Indeed, there already exist new scientific models and algorithms, which incorporate the dynamical aspects. Now it is all about applying them. The methodology of High Frequency Finance offers a possibility.

Does this mean that the attempts of the recent crisis summit addressing the strong Swiss franc have fallen short?

RO: The problem is, that people try to directly influence the level of exchange rates. This, however, destabilizes the whole currency system even more.

What advice would you give the Swiss currency experts?

RO: A first step would be to dampen the massive exchange rate fluctuations in the franc. For instance, this could be achieved if exporting firms would hedge their foreign exchange risk dynamically. Thus buying Euros now as long as it is cheap, and selling when the franc drops again. This would substantially stabilize the exchange rate of the franc.

But hedging is the business of banks. Does this really require the presence of the government?

RO: Not necessarily. There simply has to be a clear signal that new solutions exist and are ready to be utilized. It takes courage to do new things, but necessity begets ingenuity. We need to support this process of innovation.

Will the franc become stronger against the Euro?

RO: The franc has risen strongly against the Euro in the last five weeks. This can hardly continue at the same rate, particularly as the exchange rate rise can most probably be attributed to the low liquidity around the holidays and the subsequent re-buying. Another recovery of the Euro rate is therefore probable.

But the fact that the eurozone countries currently don’t agree on the amount of funding for rescuing the Euro hardly speaks for it?

RO: Europe has many problems. But the impact of such news on the exchange rate is smaller than one would think: 95 percent of an exchange rate volume is based on speculation and only 5 percent can be ascribed to the real economy. The exaggerations seen in the rates occur because speculators are being forced to sell at a certain price, if they hit their stop loss, lowering the rate even more and scaring off more investors, similar to a herd of sheep plummeting over a cliff.

The Dollar is also under pressure. The Fed will soon be deciding on the interest rates – can they change the course of things?

RO: Here also, has it become evident that the wrong recipes are being applied. Interest rates in the financial system are not paid in a continuous manner but daily. This is in contrast to the financial markets where huge volumes can be traded in a split second. The market does not need more liquidity but interest rates paid every second for intervals of minutes or hours. This would also remedy the side effects of low daily interest rates.

Contrary to the USA, China is increasing the prime rates more and more aggressively: as a result, will the frictions in the foreign exchange market increase yet again?

RO: For the foreign exchange market the central banks appear as imps, who fix everything behind the curtains. Meanwhile however, there has been no consensus among them. In a dynamical system this leads to an increasing imbalance. Yes, the friction in the foreign exchange market will increase strongly.

Higher interest rates are commonly put forward as an argument to invest in the currencies of emerging countries.

RO: From the point of view of a diversification strategy this makes sense. However, it should not be forgotten that in the booming emerging nations, prices can also increase strongly, for instance for property. This can be very risky.

Given the risks, opacity and often the unfavorable spreads, shouldn’t private investors totally avoid the foreign exchange market?

RO: There is a big demand for currency investments and these requirements should be covered. Investors should, however, better focus on lower but steadier returns and minimized risk. The partly dubious offers that are available are, if nothing else, due to the fact that large suppliers are not innovative enough and charge very high prices. A little modesty would also benefit the foreign exchange business.

(Source: Handelszeitung)

In the last month, the economic news releases have been better than expected. Manufacturing numbers and property sales for the US have turned positive surprising the public. Investors and government decision makers ask themselves whether this trend will continue; little do they realize that these numbers are spurious. They depend on the point of reference; are they computed month-to-month, or relative to a year ago? The outcome depends on the starting point; if in the previous year the numbers were bad, then it is easy to report a positive performance now. The practice of reporting one number, such as the growth compared to a year ago, is misleading. Economic numbers should be made public in the appropriate context, ideally as part of a comprehensive weather map for the economy and its financial markets.

To reduce economic uncertainty, we need a global information system that aggregates on a continuous basis, the economic time series from all around the world. By putting the time series into their appropriate context and displaying them graphically it is possible to provide more concise and easy to interpret information than is the case today. The weather maps in meteorology are a template for such a service where simple pictures convey a lot of information. We have to learn how to come up with something similar for the economic and financial markets.

The global information system with the online updates of the macroeconomic data will replace the discrete news releases that today shake the markets where; for example, the Non Farm Payroll numbers can move the market by 2 and more percent. The discreteness of the news releases creates volatility because market participants in anticipation of the release close out their positions and as soon as the release hits the market, they try to jump on the bandwagon of the price move. With online updates, there is a gradual absorption of information without the market disruptions of today’s news releases.

Author: Richard B. Olsen, Founder and CEO of Olsen Ltd

The regulators should focus on the real issues:

Credit agreements, loans, etc. are highly complex legal agreements. The in-transparency of 200 page legal contracts does not gibe as well with quantitative modeling as we would expect it to in the 21st century. We need a computer language to code legal agreements. The advantage of this approach is that risk models can be used to accurately model the true risk: today, this is not the case, important information is hidden in complex legal talk and obscure contract appendixes of Excel spread sheets.

Even today, two years after the onset of the sub prime crisis, banks do not know which assets are included in their loan portfolios. They cannot access a Google map with an overview of the locations of the properties in their loan portfolios.

Second, the fixed income markets are illiquid and their pricing is spurious, where minor events can cause major dislocations of price levels. We need to acknowledge this deficiency and take preemptive measures. Credit markets need to become highly liquid over the counter markets with real time delivery and second by second interest rate payments. Second by second interest payments will make it possible for markets to respond to the smallest disequilibrium. Furthermore, it is necessary to nurture investment strategies that are stabilizing, where professional fixed income managers operate quantitative investment strategies that provide intra-day liquidity: whenever there is a short-term imbalance, they will take the other side and help bring demand and supply back in line and stabilize prices.

Liquidity and price stability in the fixed income markets is the sine qua non for a market economy. We first have to understand this problem and raise awareness for the issue before we can hope for corrective measures.

Author: Richard B. Olsen, Founder and CEO of Olsen Ltd

Clicking here will retrieve an Acrobat version.

Author: Richard B. Olsen, Founder and CEO of Olsen Ltd

Clicking here will retrieve an Acrobat version.

To build a global early warning system we have to overcome the predicament that Alan Greenspan highlighted: ‘How do we know when international exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?….We should not underestimate or become complacent about the complexity of the interactions of asset markets and the economy…

Clicking here will retrieve an Acrobat version.